PAKISTAN’S NATIONAL SECURITY AND TRUMP’S STRATEGY IN AFGHANISAN AND SOUTH ASIA – REDRAWING SOUTH ASIAN REGIONAL STRATEGIC SECURITY PARADIGM
Dr. G. M. Chaudhry
Policy, Governance and National Security Analyst
Parliamentary Council and Legislative Draftsman
ISLAMABAD
E-mail: drgmchaudhryg@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
President Trumps Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia particularly focuses on Afghanistan and about the role of Pakistan and India in the US War on Terror in Afghanistan. It is expedient to study the impact of Trumps Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (SASA) which has the impact to redraw South Asian Regional strategic security paradigm having serious implications on Pakistan’s national security as well as relations between Pakistan and the United States. The predominant role assigned to India in the Strategy is going to seriously affect the relations also between Pakistan and India as there are longstanding disputes between Pakistan and India and the most important among such disputes are Kashmir and Water Disputes. Pakistan since its alliances relationship remained an important ally and partner of the United States whereas India is following a policy of non-alignment although it is manoeuvring political, economic, strategic and defence-related benefits from both erstwhile power blocs i.e. Soviet and American blocs. However, Pakistan maintained its relations with the USA at the cost of the USSR antagonism but still the USA failed to rescue Pakistan in its troubled times. Pros and cons of US-SASA are reviewed in the perspective of redrawing balance of power in the SAR and also to analyze the implications of the SASA on National Security of Pakistan in regional strategic security paradigm in the perspective of Regional Security Complex Theory.
Key words: South Asia, South Asian Region (SAR), South Asian Regional Security Complex (SARSC), Pakistan, India, China, CPEC, USA, US-SASA, national security, threat perception, balance of power, economic, trade.
____________________
Introduction:
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is an eight member organization for enhancing cooperating among its members i.e. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. SAARC was established in the year 1985. There is no doubt that India is the largest country among the SAARC countries economically, population or area-wise and due this reason is called as the largest democracy of the world. The western democracies extend extraordinary respect, economic, political and strategic favours to India. Due to such status, India is posing it as a Regional Super Power in the South Asian Region as well as a mini-Super Power in the world. India is also expecting a super power like treatment from all its neighbours and SAARC members. However, it is a self-proclaimed status by the Indian political analysts without any recognition from any political or strategic power or organization.
Due to super power like thinking, the India is having political and hegemonic designs with all its neighbours whether SAARC members or not. There are strained relations between India and the Peoples Republic of China regarding settlement of their international boundary in Himalayan region. However, as the China is an emerging economic and military power and it is difficult for India to challenge the military power of China although skirmishes between Indian and Chinese armies on their border is a routine matter.
Pakistan is western neighbour of India although before 1971 there was also a common border between Pakistan and India on eastern side being also a neighbour of East Pakistan. There are ever estranged relations between Pakistan and India due to Kashmir and Water Disputes in addition to other small issues. Even Indian political leaders had never recognized partition of sub-continent into Pakistan and India on the 15th of the August, 1947, by the British Government as Two Nations Theory was never accepted by Indian politicians, leaders and the Hindu population of India. Indian attitude and behaviour towards Pakistan always remained antagonistic and hostile.
Due to Indian attitude and hostile behaviour since its establishment Pakistan remained in search of security for its sovereignty and integrity. India used different tactics to undermine the sovereignty and security of Pakistan as an independent state. Immediately after the establishment of Pakistan, a war started in Jammu and Kashmir which was a Muslim-majority state and neighbouring with Pakistan. People of Jammu and Kashmir have historical social, cultural, religious and political relations and due to this reason people of Tribal Areas of Pakistan rushed to help their brethren. However, after cease fire the State of Jammu and Kashmir had been divided as the State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Indian Occupied Kashmir. The people of Indian Occupied Kashmir are still waiting for a plebiscite according to Indian commitments before the United Nations. Thereafter, India stopped flow of water in rivers entering into Pakistan being uprarian state only to ruin agricultural economy of Pakistan when the Pakistan was in dire need of food supplies immediately after its establishment. There are other issues between Pakistan and India which further heightened the tension between Pakistan and India making friendly and neighbourly existence almost not difficult but impossible. During the initial years the Indian political leaders were continuously hurling such statements which reflected Indian enmity towards Pakistan.
There was a constant state of fear and Pakistan was feeling threatened from India for its national security and sovereignty for all times due to Indian economic and military superiority and postures. Pakistani leadership strived hard to seek direly needed economic and defence assistance and cooperation from any country irrespective of ideological tilting as the instant threat was emanating from India being the immediate neighbour sharing only on its western side a border of 2912 kilometres with about 740 kilometres of a disputed Line of Control (LoC) facing Indian Occupied Kashmir. Violation of international border and exchange of fire with armed skirmishes between Indian and Pakistan’s armed forces is a routine matter which is still continuing even todate.
Pakistan approached the USA for necessary economic and military assistance which was declined. However, later on with the expansion of communism there was change in the US policy under President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s policy of containment of communism i.e. Domino Theory. US strategic policy-makers realized the geostrategic importance of Pakistan being a short-distance neighbouring country to then the USSR. Pakistan was induced to join the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and thereafter to South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), both of the treaties wherein the US had played major role. Pakistan was able to end its isolation as well as able to secure much awaited and needed economic and military assistance having superior technology. USA continued its economic and military support to non-aligned India as well when Pakistan was its defence and strategic ally. Pakistan also faced unexpected treatment from the USA during 1965 and 1971 wars with India causing severe frustration among the people of Pakistan as well as in decision-makers. At the cost of the US alliances and friendship Pakistan made a worst enemy at its doorsteps i.e. the USSR. Due to estrangement Pakistan left both the treaties. During the decade of seventythe relations with the USA remained at their lowest ebb as different defence and economic sanctions were imposed against Pakistan by the successive US governments. When in 1979 Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan there was a dawn a new era in Pakistan-US bilateral relations. The US governments actively cooperated and collaborated with Pakistan during Afghanistan war but after the withdrawal of Soviet Union from Afghanistan again warmth in Pakistan-US cooled down even the US administrations again imposed defence and economic sanctions against Pakistan. There was also harsh criticism against Pakistan due to its efforts for acquisition of nuclear technology from France. In the year 1998 Pakistan compelled to resort to nuclear detonationsin response to Indian nuclear explosions. Pakistan had become a country which faced worst type of economic and military sanctions in the US history of international cooperation and collaboration.
Again, however, the 9/11 incidentshocked the entire American nation and the successive US governments were forced to take aggressive steps against terrorists hiding or operating from different parts of the world and particularly from Afghanistan. Pakistan again had become a strategic partner with a status of only non-NATO ally for participation in US War against Terrorism or Terror (WoT) in Afghanistan. Pakistan got a role of a frontline state in the US War on Terroras the US national security interests could not be successfully achieved and protected without active assistance and support of Pakistan. WoTprovided Pakistan opportunity to cooperate with the US administration while protecting its sovereignty and geographical territory from the US onslaught on the pretext of its national security due to threats of terrorism. Consequently, Pakistan’s isolation which was due to its nuclear explosions in the year 1998 was ended.
Pakistan was one of the countries which had already recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan after Saudi Arabia. However, Pakistan re-evaluated its pro-Taliban policy and decided to cooperate with the US administration as per their security requirements providing different facilities. Although the WoT is still continuing but the relations between Pakistan and the US are periodically strained and disenchanted particularly during the President Barak Obama’s governmentwith different reservations by Pakistan as well as US administration.
During his election campaign Donald John Trump had taken a hard-line against Pakistan and announced for review of the US policy towards Pakistan after coming into power. After taking oath of the office of the President of United States of America, President Donald John Trump ordered for thorough and comprehensive review of the US policy towards Afghanistan and South Asia.
On the 21st August, 2017, the President Donald John Trump announced his Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (SASA)during his address to the armed forces personnel in Fort Myer, Arlington, Virginia. Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (SASA) has deep rooted repercussions for bilateral and strategic relations between Pakistan and the United States. At the same time President Trump announced for aspecial economic and defence relationship with India. In this way, the recently announced United States’ Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (US-SASA) have serious implications and repercussions for the national security of Pakistan. There is also change in strategic balance of power between Pakistan and India after giving a special treatment to India. In the circumstances, Pakistan has to rethink its entire foreign policy. There is a need of a formal review of the national security and strategic policy in the light of the US-SASA. Pakistan although already pursuing an independent foreign policy but still in more need to explore alternative options while searching new partners in the world. There is also need to make efforts to apprise the US policy-makers and particularly the President Donald Trump highlighting adverse implications and different factors which will ruin bilateral relations between Pakistan and the US as well as to highlight geostrategic importance of Pakistan in South Asian Region. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will redefine economic and security environment and future of South Asian Region particularly the role of Pakistan. In the background of these facts and circumstances this article will analyze the Pakistan’s national security perception in the backdrop of South Asian Regional Security Complex, balance of power and in the light of other theories of cooperation among nations in the international arena of realistic politics.
Need and Impact of Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (SASA)
Why the US administration was in need of a new policy? What may be the possible impact of SASA in South Asian Regional Security Complex? Whether SASA is an attempt to redrawing South Asian Strategic Security Paradigm? Whether India is being prepared to safeguard the US strategic interests in the South Asian Region after Pakistan-China economic and defence cooperation in the aftermath of CPEC which has multiplied the strategic influence of China in the region?
These questions and such other questions may be behind the US-SASA and in such circumstances possible hypothesis to analyze the US-SASA in possible scenarios of different theories of international cooperation among the states is that cooperation among actors is certainly under anarchy conditions[1] as the US is going to adjust[2] its strategic behaviour due to emerging influence of China in Pakistan and Afghanistan as the India is only option left for the US policy-makers to challenge the emerging economic power of China due to conflicting economic and regional interests with China and at the same time incidentally the largest democracy of the world under the presumption that democracies cooperate with each other and do not fight. It will also be an attempt to maintain balance of power in the region in a broader role and influence of China in the Asia.
Theoretical Appreciation of US-SASA
This study aims at analyzing the South Asian Regional Security Complex (RSC) in its rapidly changing scenario. Barry Buzan and Ole Waever in 2003 in their research work published in their book “Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security” advanced their Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT)which is a theory of regional security paradigms and role of different actors within their region only as they rarely cross the limits of such regions.[3] RSC model is applicable in case of South Asian Region in a broader perspective when China is also included in this region. There is convergence of interests of China in Pakistan whereas America has also realized that India is perhaps only viable and trustworthy option available for it.[4] It is the imposition of the cooperation from an international actor for its strategic and security interests and India is welcome recipient as it was in need of such cooperation keeping in view emerging scenarios and important changes for a balance of power in the region. There is also an element of fear and insecurity[5] which is a driving force in China-Pakistan relations after the US left Pakistan in lurch due to mistrust and misperceptions about its role in Afghanistan. However, US-SASA ignored its impact on RSC of South Asian Region. There will be a new design of RSC in new transformation of balance of power. In this perspective even Asian Super Complex will also change. In South Asian RSC, Pakistan and India are major power players having deep rooted conflicts since their inception and India, being a major power player, exerted its natural weight in all international affairs and Pakistan tried to keep a balance through alliances with other powers, the USA being the most important, in addition to nuclear option to forestall Indian hegemony in the RSC. The structure of RSC designed by Barry and Weaver is as given in the Map :
In this way, in the South Asian RSC, Pakistan and India are declared as a story of securitizations with military power, weapons and political status. In the present study this South Asian RSC concept is assessed and evaluated with particular point of view of Pakistan and Pakistan’s need for security in its threat perception from India which have intentions to dominate South Asia as a regional power which is not acceptable to Pakistan at any cost. Presently, after becoming a nuclear power, Pakistan is able to thwart Indian ambition of regional power although there is no balance of power when it is compared in terms of national power which certainly taking care of natural resources, size and population and certainly India is not only geographically large country but also a big economy and all industrial nations are attracted towards India being a good market for their goods and services. However, Pakistan by use of different means is trying hard to maintain balance of power with the help of its hard acquired nuclear capability and politics of alliances with major world powers and particularly the USA although the USA had always acted for protection of its regional interests in South Asia or with the ambition of either to contain former USSR from exporting communism and now expansion of Chinese influence in the region.
Main Points of the US-SASA and their Analysis
President Donald Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia[6] (US-SASA) announced on the 21st August, 2017, have the following three salient features :–
- Planning for an enduring and victorious solution;
- No Hasty Exit or withdrawal from Afghanistan; and
- Realizing the security threats in Afghanistan and the broader region due to the highest concentration of designated foreign terrorist organizations and condition-based without arbitrary timetables.
The US President has given different reasons and justifications in remarks for adopting such a strategy in Afghanistan and the South Asian Region. Trump said to develop its strategic partnership with India in the following words:
“Another critical part of the South Asia strategy for America is to further develop its strategic partnership with India — the world’s largest democracy and a key security and economic partner of the United States. We appreciate India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development. We are committed to pursuing our shared objectives for peace and security in South Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.”.
It is important to note that US-SASA is in the backdrop of problems and defeating circumstances being faced to the USA in Afghanistan. The USA is blaming the Pakistan for harbouring the Taliban, militants and other extremist or terrorist organizations fighting against the US-Afghan forces whereas Pakistan is denying such allegations by saying that Pakistan itself is the worst victim of militancy and terrorism. There is also no doubt that Pakistan had suffered economic loss worth billions of dollars since its participation and partnership in the US War on Terror after the 9/11 incident in the year 2001. In this connection it is relevant to mention that the US government provided US$22 billions as civil and military assistance to Pakistan whereas Pakistan’s economy had suffered losses about US$123.13 billions[7] which is enough to realize the US policy-makers about the price borne by Pakistan during the US War on Terrorism.
In this changed perspective there will be a clear redrawn line between major actors in the South Asian Region and Pakistan as an economic and strategic partner of China and India as an ally and strategic partner of the USA. Thus, new equilibrium for balance of power will also be determined in the same scenario. However, here the proposition of Barry Buzan’s Regional Security Complex Theory will not work as there is a historical antagonism between Pakistan and India and there is a cross-border exchange of fire as a matter of routine which may escalate into a limited war due nuclear status of both the actors confronting to each other. Imbalance in economic and traditional security forces will lead at any time into nuclear war as Pakistan’s national security will be at stake during any traditional war. Therefore, US-SASA is going to increase existing tension between two nuclear powers.
In these circumstances, it is presumed that policy-makers in Washington, D.C., was not able to assess the implications of the SASA even upto its formal announcement. Certainly, such a flawed policy is without consultation with true experts in South Asian regional affairs and security environment. The influence of Indian lobby within policy-making ranks of Capitol Hill have proved by such a unilateral policy when the US forces are still in need of Pakistan’s active support in Afghanistan.
India as an ally and strategic partner in the South Asian Region
Trump’s policy-makers and advisors miserably failed to realize that there was no need for further asserting about the role of India in the South Asian Region as the world is already aware about the presence of a Framework for the U.S.-India Defence Relationship which is a defence and strategic agreement signed by Ashton Carter, former US Secretary of Defence and Monahar Parrikar, the Indian Minister for Defence on the 3rd June, 2015[8], for a period of ten years initially. The Framework Agreement is designed for growth of defence and cooperation between the two countries which was the result of Barack Obama and Narendra Modi’s parleys in January, 2015. Article 4 of the said Framework Agreement is stating shared vision for an expanded defence partnership between the USA and India. Previously, there was also a similar Framework Agreement between both countries signed in the year 2005. Present Agreement is the result of the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) which was meant for co-development and co-production of defence articles and services including technology.This shows the US interest in expansion and growth of defence industrial base in India. It is certainly collaboration with strategic realignment and partnership disturbing balance of power in the region. However, it can easily be presumed that this strategic balance was never meant between Pakistan and India but certainly between India and China. India reportedly bought two intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) aircrafts[9] from the USA. The most recent example of such strategic collaboration by Trump administration is agreeing sale of F-16 and F-18 fighter as conveyed to the Congress through an agreement.[10]Thus, such overtures of Trump administration will disturb the strategic balance between Pakistan and India whereas it will also be a cause of concern for China which is target of the US strategic policy-makers.
However, it is noteworthy that India will not be able to help the US administration in Afghanistan as India can play a limited role in Afghanistan due to different reasons. The USA and India are facing same socio-cultural and religious isolation in Afghanistan as the people of Afghanistan have no love with them. Historically, it is apparent that India successfully allied with Afghan rulers but there was no deep-rooted relationship between Indian and Afghan people. India is merely present in Afghanistan due to its anti-Pakistan reasons as India is getting easy access to contact with Baloch nationalists and interfering in the Balochistan Province of Pakistan to worsen law and order situation in already troubled province.
Assessing success of the US-SASA without role of Pakistan
According to the US-SASA, India is a strategic partner of the US in Afghanistan while ignoring the fact that all efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan will route through Pakistan. The Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis said that he has signed deployment orders of additional US troops in Afghanistan but at the same time also expressed the desire to work with Pakistan to defeat terrorists.[11]The US administration has also placed an amount of US$255 million into an escrow of Pakistan which can only be accessed if it successfully stops cross-border terrorist attacks into Afghanistan and helps the US to win the War on Terror. It is relevant that Trump administration have ruled out an advice of retired US officials and generals regarding assigning greater role to India at the cost of Pakistan and any such policy will backfire and miserably fail.The US administration firstly diminished the role of Pakistan in the US-SASA but thereafter realized its importance as all communication lines on ground passed through Pakistan and with the decision of further deployment of forces the need for revival of such supply lines have been increased and any punitive action against Pakistan will result in ultimate failure of the US military operations in Afghanistan. Similar is the state of affairs for India as India may also face trade as well as other restriction which will also impair role of India in Afghanistan.
More practical opinion has been expressed by Stavridis, a former NATO Supreme Commander who is now serving as the Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University who said that options are bad in Afghanistan as we could cut our losses from 2400 Americans dead, US$1 trillion spent and eventually leading to another Vietnam moment.[12] Thus, sanity and expertise is required while making policies in the realist paradigm keeping in view ground realities. However, the same did not happen in case of SASA.
The US administration is already aware about the implications of its rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan without heeding advice of Pakistan. Now the same is being done by ignoring the role of Pakistan for peace in Afghanistan and introducing India at its place which is a worthless and impractical decision as both the US and India are at the same pedestal if Pakistan is not involved either to defeat the militants and terrorists or to reach a viable political settlement in Afghanistan. There is no second view that defence and strategic policies or strategies are executed on ground instead of theoretical assertions. There is need for more important role for Pakistan in the emerging geostrategic scenario in South Asian Regional Security Complex or in Asian Super Complex for any substantial success on ground.
Impact of US-SASA on regional balance of power
After threatening overtures from the US administration, China immediately reacted by supporting Pakistan’s role in counter-terrorism and its sacrifices for the purpose.[13] It is a message to the USA about changing pattern of strategic balance of power in the region. The USA is unable to properly realize that it neither in 1965 nor 1971 supported Pakistan when China was not in a position to help and protect Pakistan. Now after CPEC and huge financial investments in different economic and defence-related projects, it will be in the national and strategic interest of China not only to come forward to help against any Indian aggression as well as the US intervention. India and China are competing to each other in expanding their maritime influence in the Indian Ocean.[14] India has taken initiative to develop the Iranian port of Chabahar which is less than 100 kilometres from Gwadar port of Pakistan which is being developed and managed by China. Thus, there is already escalation of tension between China and India in the region which is going to create another factor disturbing balance of power in the South Asian RSC.
In this way, the US-SASA is a step towards disturbing balance of power in not only in the South Asian Region but also in broader perspective of Asian Super Complex without learning any lesson from the past as well as by similar policies of the former USSR. Time is redrawing international security paradigm in Asian Super Complex wherein China and Russia are aligning together and certainly Pakistan will opt to cooperate with such alignment due to disenchanting relationship with the USA. It will be reconfiguration of balance of power in international politics.[15] Cooperation and collaboration between China and Russia will strategically attract smaller countries of the Asia to align with them. India in the circumstances is not appropriately exploiting its options in the given scenario. There is no doubt that during the Cold War, India due to its policies of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds pattern, was benefiting on the pretext of China from the USA and the USSR at the same time as the USSR was competing with China at that time. The USA declared its policy towards India in US-SASA by allowing a special role as a partner.[16]In this strategic scenario although India will economically and strategically benefit by managing economic and defence assistance and collaboration but not be in a position to safeguard the USA’s strategic interests in the region. The role played by Pakistan for the USA will never be played or expected from India and ultimately India have to think over its position in Asian Super Complex. However, Pakistan’s alignment towards China and Russia will be more beneficial as compared to the Cold War era of the USA’s relations.
Emerging Regional Security Paradigm after US-SASA
The US-SASA is certainly redrawing strategic balance in South Asian Region particularly and Asia generally. New strategic balance in the South Asia will depend on China and the USA relations.[17]China and Russia are adopting uniform policies in Afghanistan while India is trying to further deep root its position in Afghanistan at the expense of the USA. Although it can be said that the US-SASA is announced without assessing its possible implications without or while squeezing the role of Pakistan. Thus, even the USA will face problems to strengthen its gains in Afghanistan with the help of India when both the USA and India are at same social and religious pedestal as far as people of Afghanistan are concerned. It is misperception of Trump as well as his military leadership and security advisors that they will be able to implement their policies in Afghanistan with the help of so-called Afghan rulers and government as the Afghan government cannot survive without the economic and military assistance of the USA as the Afghan government is lacking popular support as well as territorial and administrative control in Afghanistan. The emerging economy and military might of China have changed strategic balance in the South Asian Region as the China is cooperating immensely with Pakistan as a good alternative of the USA changing global security paradoxes.[18] In this way, there is a need to deeply study the changing structure of the Asia by applying neo-realist approach as the economic realities are guiding strategic realities in the region. China after its emergence as an economic power is strengthening its role in the region with a friendly Russia having common economic and trading interests in Pakistan being materialized through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is an extension of One Belt, One Road (OBOR). While announcing the US-SASA, the US administration failed to minutely analyze the future of Afghanistan which is with China and Russia. It cannot be presumed that withdrawal of the USSR from Afghanistan is a total rescission from Afghanistan forever. Still there is Russian influence in Afghanistan and Russia is in close liaison with some groups in Afghanistan.
The US policy-makers ignored the impact of their policy in the neighbouring states. Declaration of a closer partnership with India for achievement of its agenda in Afghanistan even brought closer Pakistan and China as well as Russia. Foes of past are now friends due to faulty policies of the USA towards Pakistan and China. Geostrategic environment itself an important factor in international politics of nations. Points of convergence between Pakistan and the USA are decreasing except economic assistance due to the USA’s reluctance and cutting military aid and collaboration. There are at the same time more points of convergence between China and Pakistan as well as Russia. Afghanistan’s nature of a landlocked country and its trade dependence on Pakistan is a factor which will not allow long term animosity with Pakistan. Therefore, it is the USA’s wrong perception that any hostile policy against Pakistan will successfully work in Afghanistan.
Global problems require global solutions. There is no doubt that force is and remained order of day in international politics. However, no global issue can be resolved with unison approach when there are more stakeholders of the same problem. Afghanistan is being perceived by the USA only as a terrorism breeding place and a sanctuary of militancy while ignoring all human factors and actions and reactions of human behaviours. Thus, solution of Afghanistan problem lies in dialogue and particularly with Taliban instead to crush Taliban approach as the USA and India will be unable to change attitudes of native people of Afghanistan with use of military might and providing economic benefits to a limited number of people particularly part of the Afghan government and ruling elite who are not having confidence and mandate from the people of Afghanistan. In the case of Afghanistan only convergence of universal values of peace linked with humanitarian welfare will work with closer liaison with all factions of Afghan people which will ensure security of the USA.[19]Revenge and use of military might is not always beneficial in international politics.
Possibility of Escalation of tension between Pakistan and India
India is an ambitious and hegemonic country in the SAR presuming it as a mini-super power or a regional power. The US-SASA has further complicated the regional strategic situation when there are longstanding pending disputes between Pakistan and India. Indian hegemonic designs are apparent from its polices like Look East Policy (1992), Look West Policy (2005) and Connect Central Asia Policy (2011) and in the presence of such policies, the US-SASA has provided a golden opportunity to India with the concurrence of the sole super power in this world to promote its interests in Afghanistan.[20] Indians consider Afghanistan as the vehicle for spread of Buddhism from India to Central Asia and beyond and still believes that Afghanistan is the important outpost in their strategic expansion in Central Asia, Russia and Europe.[21] Indian intentions towards Pakistan are not clandestine as India is always willing to launch offensive and actions against and in Pakistan.[22] Similarly, India is also abetting terrorist acts in Pakistan by using Afghan soil against Pakistan.[23]
Increasing Nuclear Threats in South Asian Region
The US-SASA assigned a clear role to India in Afghanistan instead it has excluded all role of Pakistan by substituting India which is even a serious threat to regional strategic balance and security. Pakistan remained a “frontline state” in the US War on Terror for a long time. However, there is entrance of India as a new role-player in Afghanistan is not easily acceptable to Pakistan at any cost. Indian policy successfully worked in India firstly supporting the Northern Alliance and later on firming its position after the end of Taliban government in Afghanistan. India had already constructed 218 kilometre long Zaranj-Delaram road linking the Iranian border with the Garland Highway which is now being extended in Iranian territory upto sea port of Chabahar providing an alternative route to Afghanistan to Central Asian Republics for Indian goods.[24]
It is, in fact, an encircling attempt of India as the India is already enjoying cordial relations with Iran and after development of a trade route through Iran-Afghanistan to Central Asia will be a major threat to national security of Pakistan as the India is already having its claims on territories of Northern Areas of Pakistan linking Pakistan with China which is also an entry point of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). All such factors and acts are contributory towards escalation of threat to the national security of Pakistan which cannot compete India due to huge war machine and conventional weapons of all sorts with a large army. The only option left with Pakistan is nuclear weapons as once India will be comfortable in Iran and Afghanistan, Indian policy-makers and decision-makers will never allow Pakistan to exert an independent strategic policy. In this way, Afghanistan is again going to become a hotspot of Indian proxy war with the help of non-Pushtun population of Afghanistan pitching it against Pashtun population creating fragmentation and interference in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan. Balochistan is already a troubled province with a separatist movement of Baloch nationalists supported by India and other international stakeholders.
There was a significant improvement in the US-Indian relations since the US War on Terror although Pakistan remained as a frontline partner in the war. The US policy-makers are preparing India to check increasing military and economic power of China in the Asia. In this way, India always remained beneficiary of a preferential treatment from the USA with economic and technical collaboration.[25] Now the US-SASA formally allowed and acknowledged the role of India in Afghanistan which will become catastrophic for Pakistan-Indian relations as well as the USA-China relations.
There should be no doubt to the US policy-makers that there are divergences and convergences in Pakistan-US strategic interests and they should have to survive with such divergences and convergences. Certainly, Pakistan-US relations always affected due to the US-Indian relations which are also conflicting in Afghanistan as well.[26]In this way, the US-SASA is furthering conflict between Pakistan and the USA and after announcement of the policy, the relations between Pakistan and the US touched to their lowest ebb moving towards further deterioration. Immediately after the declaration of the US-SASA, the US administration followed the same and exerted extraordinary pressure on Pakistan with its traditional mantra of “do more” which has not been openly denounced but rejected by Pakistan’s authorities but the people of Pakistan and political leaders are stressing the government to say, “no more”.
Impact on Pakistan-China Relationship
China is immediate neighbouring country of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The CPEC is a core project for economic development of Pakistan by availing access to the Indian Sea. However, stability in Afghanistan is equally important for China. In this background China is making efforts for settlement of different issued between Pakistan and Afghanistan.[27]
Afghanistan’s sustainability options
It is formally announced by Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, Pentagon Joint Staff Director that the US troops level in Afghanistan has reached 11,000 exceeding previously stated 8,400 set under former President Barack Obama.[28] The US perception to ensure stability and security in Afghanistan by increase of forces is merely a misperception as the similar objective could not be achieved by the Soviet armed forces with a great number of forces.
Supporting or Opposing Factors and their Analysis
The US-SASA as far as its Pakistan’s component is concerned is backfired. The US administration without devising any formal strategy for implementation of the Strategy clamped pressure against Pakistan which was also reacted sharply at all levels in Pakistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister told the Senate, “No surrender to US demands”.[29]Pakistan’s Defence Minister previously said that government is reassessing its ties with the USA.[30]Similarly, there were also soft reactions from Kabul as the Strategy has to create problems for Afghanistan as there is a dependence of Afghanistan on Pakistan whereas other warring factions of the Taliban and Islamic Jihadists got an opportunity to target the US interests due to its open declaration towards India and sponsoring India in Afghanistan as a major role-player.[31] The US out of blue discarding the role of Pakistan in its War on Terror was also not favourably viewed by China.[32] It is further emphasized that China stands by Pakistan keeping in view its role in Afghanistan and War on Terror.[33] Chinese Foreign Minister also further explained the efforts of Pakistan and supported Pakistan’s stance.[34]
The US-SASA evoked a stern reaction amongst the people of Pakistan who condemned Trump as well as the USA.[35]Rex Tillerson, the US Secretary of State was received in Pakistan with cold shoulder with voices of “No more”.[36] Upon this unexpected response, the US administration realized its folly and impractical aspects of the US-SASA and decided to engage Pakistan during a meeting of the US Vice President Pence with Pakistan Prime Minister in Washington.[37] In the meantime, the Prime Minister of Pakistan said that Pakistan no more reliant on the USA for military needs which was an eye-opener for the US administration.[38] Similarly, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister also further said that Pakistan will not be a scapegoat for the US failures.[39] It was further said that Pakistan paid a heavy price for being the US ally and proxy[40] in the past.[41] This was the point of realization by the US administration and mending diplomatic fences with Pakistan and the US Congress authorised $700 million for reimbursing Pakistan which were previously stopped.[42] General John Nicholson expressed his concern about Pakistan’s behaviour despite Trump’s tough line while still willing to work with Pakistan.[43] However, finally the ice began melting when both sides realized for adopting new approaches over Afghan issue.[44]
Certainly, Pakistan is an independent and sovereign state and responsible for its national security first as the US is careful about its national security in the distant territories. It was the US War on Terror in Afghan and other parts of the world which ultimately reached inside Pakistan[45] and caused loss of lives, property and to national economy due to terrorist activities in Pakistan without any fault of it and only due to its partnership with the USA and facing serious implications for its national security as well as soared relations with the USA. Asia is burning with small scale problems among the states which can be resolved if there are solemn efforts and commitments between the states like an effort in the form of a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and shunning away conflicts external and international interests in their bilateral and regional conflicts.[46] Similarly, issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as between Pakistan and India can be peacefully resolved if the will is there. The USA instead of providing security is endangering security of the entire region. Thus, the US-SASA is a further attempt to deepen the divide between different countries of the South Asian Region and particularly Pakistan, China and India as these are major stakeholder in the region at the moment by redrawing strategic security paradigm. However, Modi sowed the seeds of religious hatred among the Indian masses with permanent fault lines of Hindu, Muslim, Sikh, Christian, etc., and inculcation of such thinking will not meet Indian policy failures in Pakistan but also in Afghanistan as it will be difficult to sell the same product two different places with same qualities posing differently.[47] There is also a possibility of a deepening of a divide in India again on religious lines which will be a threat to national integrity of India when there are already separatist movements in its different parts.
Conclusions
The US-SASA is an ambitious policy of the US administration which is the outcome of inexperience of Trump’s national security team based on wishes instead of minutely analysing the ground realities in the South Asian Region. Afghanistan or Pakistan are not two pawns on the US chessboard of international affairs. The US presumption to be a sole super power will miserably fail to redraw South Asian Regional strategic security paradigm as the cost and effort required is not bearable to the USA.
Similarly, the US policy and decision-makers failed to appreciate the importance of Pakistan in the twenty-first century when the Peoples Republic China is emerging on economic scene and has also realized the same geostrategic importance of Pakistan which was previously realized by the USA before extending cooperation, alliances and economic support to Pakistan against the Soviet Union. CPEC is a game-changer in the region and participation of Russia, Central Asian Republics and other Asian nations will further highlight the importance of Afghanistan and Pakistan and an effort to redraw strategic security paradigm of the South Asian Region will backfire culminating in failure of the US strategy alienating or limiting the role of the USA in the region. Thus, Pakistan’s concerns about its national security will force it to search for more friends and partners instead of the USA keeping in view its ditching in the past by the USA when not so needed.
____________________
Author
Dr. G. Chaudhry, Policy, Governance and National Security Analyst, Parliamentary Council and Legislative Draftsman. He is based in Islamabad and heading a Research and Consultancy Firm namely Chaudhry and Chaudhry Associates, Islamabad.He is the author of more than two dozen Books in the field of Law, Legislative Drafting and Process in Pakistan, Intellectual Property Rights, Military Laws and Constitution of Pakistan in addition to a collection of essays on Law, Justice, Human Rights and Legal System. He also worked as Legislative Adviser/Draftsman in the Ministry of Law, Justice and Human Rights and participated in drafting of hundreds of laws. His books titled “Practical Approach to Legislative Drafting” and “Legislative Process in Pakistan” are like text-books in the field of legislative drafting and law-making process and working of Parliament in Pakistan. “Essays on Law, Justice, Human Rights and Legal System” is a collection of essays on different topics as apparent from the title. Presently, he is heading a firm which is providing consultancy services and dealing with matters relating to Law, Governance, Management, Legislative and Parliamentary Drafting and Counselship in addition to delivering lectures as a Visiting Faculty Member in different Colleges and Universities.
____________________
[1]Keohane, Robert and Kenneth A. Oye. Cooperation under Anarchy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), 51-60. Similarly, in Putnam and Bayne as well as Grieco and Haas.
[2]Keohane, Robert and Kenneth A. Oye. Cooperation under Anarchy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), 51-60. Adopted the definition from Charles Lindblom, The Intelligence of Democracy (New York: Free Press, 1965), 227.
[3]Buzan, Barry, and Ole Waever. Regions and Powers – The Structure of International Security (London: Cambridge University Press, January 1, 2003).
[4] Axelrod, Robert. The Evolution of Cooperation (New York: Basic Books, 1984), 21-27.
[5]Buzan, Barry. People, States, and Fear (Sussex: Wheatsheaf Books Ltd., 1983), 24-35.
[6] Press Release of the White House by the Office of the Press Secretary, dated 21-08-2017 accessible at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/21/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-and-south-asia
[7]MehtabHaider, “US provided $22b civilian, military aid as ally”, The News, Islamabad, September 27, 2017.
[8]DoD News, “U.S., India Sigh 10-Year Defense Framework Agreement”, accessed on September 9, 2017, at https://www.defense.gov/News/Article/604775/.
[9]LalaQadir, Global Policy Watch, “The United States and India Sigh a 10-Year Defense Agreement and Set the Stage for Increased Defense Cooperation”, accessed at https://www.globalpolicywatch/2015/06/the-united-states-india -sign.
[10]Online, The Daily Jang, “Trump administration supported for sale of F-16 and F-18 fighter jets to India”, Islamabad, September 9, 2017.
[11]Anwar Iqbal, Dawn, “Mattis signs deployment order, seeks Pakistan’s cooperation”, Islamabad: September 2, 2017.
[12] James Stavridis, “Back to the future in Afghanistan”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 24, 2017.
[13] Ms. Hua, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, The News International, “Pakistan will be defended, announces China”, Islamabad: September 2, 2017.
[14]Rahul Roy Chaudhry, IISS, “India counters China in the Indian Ocean”, London: August, 25, 2017, accesses at http://www.iiss.org/eng/research/south-s-asia-s-security/indian-ocean-ecba on September 4, 2017.
[15]IFRI :InstitutFrancais des relations internationals (French Institute of International Relations), Barry Buzan, “Asia: A Geopolitical Reconfiguration,” (Paris: Ifri Journal).
[16] US-SASA, Press Release of the White House.
[17]Robert Ayson, Asia’s Security (London: Palgrave, 2015), p. 51-79
[18]Saighal, Major General Vinod, Global Security Paradoxes 2000-2010 (New Delhi: Manas Publications, 2004), pp. 44-46.
[19]Peter Hough, Understanding Global Security (Oxon, UK: Routledge, 2008), pp. 248-259.
[20]ShekharAdhikari and Sanjeev Bhadauria, eds., India’s National Security in the 21st Century (New Delhi: Pentagon Press, 2014), p. 297. Pankaj Jha, “India as an Asia Pacific Power-Pursuing a Cohesive Strategy,”, pp. 297-307.
[21]ShekharAdhikari and Sanjeev Bhadauria, eds., India’s National Security in the 21st Century, p. 233. ArpitaBasu Roy, “Afghanistan: India’s Strategic and Security Concerns”, pp. 233-253.
[22]Anwar Iqbal, India may launch aggressive actions in Pakistan: US spies, Dawn, Islamabad, May 25, 2017.
[23]Marian Baabar, India abetting terrorism, using Afghan soil against Pakistan, says FO, The News, Islamabad, October 14, 2017.
[24]Mariam Shaukat Khan, Changing Security Matrix: Concerns for Pakistan and Afghanistan (Lahore: Peace Publication, 2016), pp. 139-140.
[25]HafeezMalil, US Relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan: The Imperial Dimension (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 139-161.
[26] Joachim Krause and Charles King Mallory, eds., Afghanistan, Pakistan and Strategic Change: Adjusting Western Regional Policy (Oxon, UK: Routledge, 2014), pp. 228-229. C. Christine Fair, “U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Ten Years after 9/11,”, pp. 221-234.
[27]Waseem Abbasi, “US cautiously welcomes Chinese mediation between Pakistan, Afghanistan,”The News, Islamabad, September 20, 2017.
[28] The Correspondent,“US now has 11,000 troops in Afghanistan, says Pentagon,”Dawn, Islamabad, September 01, 2017.
[29]Iftikhar A. Khan, “No Surrender to US demands, Asif tells Senate,” Dawn, Islamabad, October 26, 2017.
[30]BaqirSajjad Syed, “Govt reassessing ties with US: defence minister,” Dawn, Islamabad, September 14, 2017.
[31]Ahmad Hassan, “Trump’s Afghan policy adds to Kabul woes,” The News, Islamabad, August 27, 2017.
[32]“China asks US to recognize Pak anti-terror efforts,” The News, October 9, 2017.
[33]Mariana Baabar, “China says stands by Pakistan,” The News, Islamabad, September 9, 2017.
[34]“China defends Pakistan’s efforts against terrorism,” Dawn, Islamabad, September 7, 2017.
[35]“Rallies condemn Trump’s threats against Pakistan,” Dawn, Islamabad, August 29, 2017.
[36]AFP, “Tillerson gets cold shoulder,”,The News, Islamabad, October 25, 2017.
[37]BaqarSajjad Syed and Anwar Iqbal, Reporters, “Pakistan, US agree to build on ties improvement,” Dawn, Islamabad, October 19, 2017.
[38]“Pakistan no more reliant on US for military needs: Abbasi,” Dawn, Islamabad, October 10, 2017.
[39]Staff Reporter, “Pakistan will not be scapegoat for US failures: Asif,” Dawn, Islamabad, October 27, 2017.
[40]“Being US proxy in Soviet war was mistake: Pakistan,” The News, Islamabad, September 28, 2017.
[41]“Pakistan paid heavy price for being US ally, says Kh Asif,” The News, Islamabad, October 16, 2017.
[42]Anwar Iqbal, “US Congress authorizes $700m for reimbursing Pakistan,” Dawn, Islamabad, November 11, 2017.
[43]“US general sees no change in Pakistan behavior despite Trump’s tough line,” Dawn, Islamabad, November 29, 2017.
[44]Anwar Iqbal, “New approaches being used with Pakistan, India over Afghan issue: US,” Dawn, Islamabad, November 28, 2017.
[45]NirodeMohanty, America, Pakistan, and the India Factor (Chennai: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013), p. 143.
[46]Robert Ayson, Asia’s Security (New York: Palgrave Macmillan Education, 2015), p. 279.
[47]Anil Bhat, Modi’s Blueprint for India: Policy, Governance and Emerging Challenges (New Delhi: Pentagon Press, 2014), pp. 66-67.
