PAKISTAN-US RELATIONS AND DONALD TRUPM’S STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN AND SOUTH ASIA – IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY OF PAKISTAN

Dr. G. M. Chaudhry

Policy, Governance and National Security Analyst

Parliamentary Council and Legislative Draftsman

E-mail:drgmchaudhryg@gmail.com

ISLAMABAD

ABSTRACT

Pakistan and United States of America is having long history of bilateral relationship since the establishment of Pakistan. Pakistan is the oldest US ally in South Asia and this relationship passed through strategic alliances like SEATO and CENTO to containing expansion of communism. US was successfully able to defeat the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in Afghanistan with active cooperation of Pakistan having common threat to national security of US and Pakistan national interests. After 9/11, Pakistan remained an important non-NATO ally of US in its War on Terrorism (WoT) which is still continuing against warlords and terrorist groups as well as organizations operating in Afghanistan and also spanning in different territories of Pakistan. Pakistan has launched different operations against the terrorists in its Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which is still continuing in the form of Operation Zarb-e-Azab throughout Pakistan to cleanse Pakistan from terrorists and alleged terrorist organizations. This article aims at to study implications of recently announced President Donald John Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia which having serious repercussions on future of Pakistan-US bilateral relations. Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia is an attempt to redraw the parameters of Pakistan-US bilateral relations and role of Pakistan.

Key words:    United States, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, South Asia, terrorism, War on Terror (WoT), strategic relations, national security.

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Introduction

The main objective of Pakistan’s foreign policy is the national security of Pakistan emanating from threat perception of Pakistan due to permanent enmity with India being its neighbor. Since the establishment of Pakistan there are continuous conflicts between India and Pakistan due to different reasons amongst such reasons Kashmir and water issues are two major problems which could not be resolved according to wishes and aspiration of Pakistan. Pakistan’s integrity and national security remained the major problem and top priority in its policy-making process due to hostile attitude of India. The concept of Akhund Bharat (unified India) as opened promoted by Indian political leadership always kept the Pakistan’s political leadership and national security establishment to take steps for integration, sovereignty and national security of Pakistan. Pakistan always remained in search of allies and friends who can help Pakistan in its national security perception. In the fifties due to geographical and strategic location of Pakistan in vicinity of USSR, the then strategic policy-makers of US identified Pakistan as one of its ally who can used against communist expansion towards South Asia as well as oil-rich Middle East. Pakistan was in need of economic and military assistance since its establishment due to continuous threats to its national security from India.

Pakistan was firstly made the member of Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and thereafter to South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO), both of the treaties wherein the US had played major role. However, the Pakistan felt frustrated when firstly the US failed to fulfillment Pakistan’s expectations during 1965 war with India and finally in 1971 war. Pakistan left both the treaties. During the seventy’s decade the relations with Pakistan remained at their lowest ebb as different defence and economic sanctions were imposed against Pakistan by US governments. However, in 1979 the USSR intervened and invaded Afghanistan dawning a new era in Pakistan-US bilateral relations. US governments and national security establishments actively cooperated and collaborated with Pakistan during Afghanistan war. However, after the withdrawal of USSR from Afghanistan again there was no warmth in Pakistan-US relations even different US administrations imposed defence and economic sanctions against Pakistan. The height of such lack of cooperation reached to the highest level during year 1998 when Pakistan compelled to resort to nuclear detonation as a response to India nuclear testing and explosions. Pakistan was not only isolated but there were worst kind of sanctions against Pakistan slapped by the US administration.

The incident of 9/11was a major incident in the recent US history which shocked the entire American nation and US governments were forced to take aggressive steps against terrorists hiding or operating from different parts of the world. Pakistan again became a country without which active assistance no successful operation can be planned against Taliban Government in Afghanistan.

The incident of 9/11 made the Pakistan a frontline state in US War on Terrorism or Terror (WoT) as US national security interests could not be successfully protected without assistance and support of Pakistan. War on Terror provided Pakistan opportunity to cooperate with US administration while protecting sovereignty and geographical territory from US onslaught on the pretext of its national security as well as to end isolation internationally faced after nuclear explosions in the year 1998.

Pakistan was one of the countries which had already recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan. However, Pakistan re-evaluated its pro-Taliban policy and decided to cooperate with US administration as per their security requirements by all possible facilities. During War on Terror Pakistan remained the strategic partner of US and Pakistan was only country which allowed the status of non-NATO ally during US military operations in Afghanistan. However, strained and disenchanted relations continued during the government of President Barak Obama with different reservations by Pakistan as well as US administration.

President Donald John Trump, during his elections campaign, announced for review of US policy towards Pakistan after coming into power. After taking oath of the office of the President of United States of America, President Donald John Trump ordered for thorough and comprehensive review of US Afghanistan and South Asia policy.

On the 21^st August, 2017, the President Donald John Trump announced his Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia while addressing armed forces personnel in Fort Myer, Arlington, Virginia. Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia has deep rooted repercussions for bilateral and strategic relations between Pakistan and United States. Recently announced United States’ Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (US-SASA) have different serious implications for national security of Pakistan and Pakistan has to rethink over its entire foreign policy and after a formal review adjust the national security and strategic policy keeping in view US-SASA and to explore alternative options in search of new partners in the world as well as to make efforts to apprise the Donald Trump’s administration different problems and compulsions regarding prevailing relations Pakistan-US as well as to highlight geostrategic importance of Pakistan in South Asia and particularly after the commencement of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the CPEC will redefine economic and security future of South Asia and particularly Pakistan in South Asia and Asia as a whole. There is no doubt that Pakistan-US require balanced bilateral relations for US interest in South Asia as after CPEC the role of India is restricted as Pakistan-China economic and national security partnership will determine the future of South Asia in international security paradigm as well.

Donald Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (SASA)

President Donald Trump’s strategy is a well thought policy initiative by the US administration which is going to be implemented with full force as asserted by the US President himself and further asserted by James Mattis, the Secretary of Defence. Strategy although recognized the past role of Pakistan but there is also a stern message of dire consequences for Pakistan unless the Pakistan review its policy to support some factions of Taliban and militant as well as terrorist organizations operated in Afghanistan and having bases or support from Pakistan. Pakistan is again ditched by the US strategists giving birth to serious challenges to national security of Pakistan. Now it is the responsibility of Pakistan policy-makers and the government to suitable cater with problem of lack of trust in bilateral relations with US. This article will aimed to analyze the US-SASA and study its implications towards national security of Pakistan in geostrategic environment of South Asia where India is going to be promoted and sponsored as proxy of US administration with declared commitments for more cooperative, assistance and role in the region.

National Security concerns of Pakistan

Since the establishment of Pakistan, Pakistan was in search of friends, allies or partners who can share Pakistan’s National Security concerns. The major threats to national security of Pakistan are emanating from its western bordersituated with India which is also the longest border measuring 2,912 kilometres with 740 kilometres of Line of Control (LoC) with Indian Occupied Kashmir. There are territorial disputes between the India and Pakistan since the 14^th August, 1947 i.e. date of establishment of Pakistan. The most important territorial disputed is about Indian Occupied/Held Kashmir. River waters dispute is another equally important issue. There were three full scale wars between Pakistan and India in the years 1948, 1965 and 1971 in addition to Siachin Conflict in the year 1999.Indian political leaderships had not accepted the partition of the sub-continent into India and Pakistan and Indian hardliner politicians still claims for Akhund Bharat (unified or one India)[1] and due to such reasons there is a sense of insecurity in Pakistan. Patel, one of Indian leaders in 1947 said, “Give Jinnah his state, …, it wouldn’t survive anyway. In five years, the Moslem League would be knocking at their door begging for India’s reunification”.[2] This was the thinking of most of the Indian political leaders at the time of establishment of Pakistan. Thereafter, those leaders availed all opportunities to prove Pakistan a wrong committed by the All India Muslim League.

Although Pakistan was having threats to its national security but even then Pakistan pursued an independent and non-aligned foreign policy from 1947 to 1953. Pakistan suffered a fatal below by India in the form of diversion of rivers water in the year 1948. From 1954 to 1958 a policy of alliances and power blocs was followed when the Pakistan had become a member of the Baghdad Pact later on renamed as the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1954 and thereafter the South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) in the year 1955 to become the strong spiritual faith and martial spirit of the people make them a dependable bulwark against Communism as said by John Foster Dulles, then Secretary of State of USA.[3] However, from 1959 to 1969, there was policy of alignment with alliances due to Domino Theory of US President Dwight D. Eisenhower. Finally, the affair of alliance came to an end after the separation of East Pakistan due to Indian intervention in collaboration with USSR proving the national security fears of Pakistan realized. However, US being the ally of Pakistan had not provided any assistance to Pakistan even withheld assistance under existence agreements and arrangements.  It was the great national security debacle for Pakistan forcing for complete review of Pakistan’s foreign policy and establishing bilateral relations with all countries instead to falling in group or blocs politics. USA completely ditched an erstwhile ally and partner to face the music and aligned with India being the largest democracy of the world. During that period even Pakistan was further penalized for its efforts to acquire nuclear technology by worst kind of economic and military sanctions.

However, in 1979 USSR invaded Afghanistan which was the beginning of a new era of cooperation and collaboration between two countries which is still continuing with ups and downs due to different confusions, perceptions and misperceptions. Even the Pakistan was declared as a Non-NATO ally of the USA. Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI and CIA cooperation remained exemplary for execution of different operations in Afghanistan as well as in Pakistan against the terrorist and terrorist organizations.

In the meantime the India remained an important factor in US foreign policy as the Indian lobbies successfully improved Indian image in the eyes of US policy-makers. Barry Buzan and Gowher Rizvi in their Article titled “The Future of the South Asian Security Complex” rightly observed that alignment works powerfully in South Asia as the conditions of the local states is determining their level of insecurity.[4] Thus, it was not only the Pakistan’s case but India was also in need of support of international powers and USA was at the same time promoting its relations with India when also using Pakistan for its strategic purposes in the South Asian Region. US administration itself realized that extremist elements in Afghanistan feed instability in Pakistan.[5]Pakistan was also having concerns for its national security by US policy-makers had never given to much space to think over its policies and also dictated their stance in the past. After 9/11, Richard Armitage, then US Deputy Secretary of State conveyed to Pakistan’s leadership that “You are either 100 per cent with us or 100 per cent against us”[6] and same policy position is again emerging after Donald Trump’s SASA remarks saying “…that will have to change, and that will change immediately. No partnership can survive a country’s harbouring of militants and terrorist who target U.S. servicemen and officials. It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilization, order, and to peace.”.[7]

Analysis of Donald Trump’s South Asia Policy

Donald Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia[8] (US-SASA) announced on the 21^st August, 2017, have the following three salient features in particular perspective to Pakistan :–

• Planning for an enduring and victorious solution;
• No Hasty Exit or withdrawal from Afghanistan; and
• Realizing the security threats in Afghanistan and the broader region due to the highest concentration of designated foreign terrorist organizations.

The US President has given different reasons and justifications in remarks for adopting such a strategy in Afghanistan and the South Asian region.

US Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia and Pakistan’s Perspective

US Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia particularly focused Pakistan from different perspectives and following are Pakistan-focused points in the SASA :–

• There is concentration of about 20 US-designated foreign terrorist organizations in Afghanistan and Pakistan which is the highest concentration in any region in the world.
• Pakistan often giving safe haven to agents of chaos, violence and terror.
• US’s interests in Pakistan are clear which are regarding stoppage of resurgence of terrorist’s safe havens and preventing nuclear weapons and materials from terrorists.
• America is going to change its approach towards Pakistan due to terrorist organizations’ safe havens in Pakistan and particularly due to Taliban groups who are posing threats to the region and beyond.
• Pakistan has to lose due to continuing harbouring of criminals and terrorists who are killing US people.
• Pakistan is also sheltering the terrorist organizations.
• Pakistan is threatened to change its policy regarding harbouring the terrorists immediately.
• Threat to end partnership with Pakistan due to its role to harbour militants and terrorists who are targeting US service-members and officials.
• Development of strategic partnership with India being the world’s largest democracy and a key security and economic partner of America.

There was also a meek recognition to the Pakistan being a valued partner in the past as the Pakistani people had suffered greatly due to terrorism and extremism. However, in the same breath the Trump has also said that US government have been paying billions of dollars.

Measures proposed to implement the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia

The US President elaborated the following core pillars of the new Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia:–

• Shift from a time-bases to condition-based approach or strategy.
• Conditions on ground and not arbitrary timetables will guide the new strategy.
• Integration of all instruments of power i.e. diplomatic, economic and military, for successful outcomes.
• Possibility of political settlement in Afghanistan including the Taliban in government in sometime in future.
• Continuation of American support to Afghan government militarily to confront the Taliban.
• Role of people of Afghanistan in future governance.
• Change in strategy to deal with Pakistan.
• Giving India role as a strategic partner in South Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.
• India should help more in Afghanistan economically.
• There will be no micromanagement from Washington, D.C.
• Expanding authority of US armed forces in Afghanistan to deal with terrorists and criminal networks.
• There will be a fast and powerful retribution.
• Maximization of sanctions to eliminate terrorist networks to reduce their ability to export terror.
• A new definition of US victory is given which means to fight to win.
• Stopping mass terror attacks against America before their practical emergence.
• NATO allies and global partners to support new strategy with additional troops and more funding.
• Afghan people have to bear the burden and encourage their armed forces.
• US will not use military to construct democracies in distant lands or try to rebuild other countries in US image.
• Military power only is not a viable solution to bring peace and there is a need of a political process.
• Threats are hurled to terrorists for their lasting defeat.
• Increasing military spending including development of nuclear arsenal and missile defence systems.
• Fresh resolve to defend America from its enemies abroad.

Trump’s SASA is a highly optimistic which need more time than his term of four years. The time will tell how much SASA objectives will be achieved during the tenure of Donald Trump.

Theoretical appreciation of the Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia

It is quite relevant to have a theoretical appreciation of Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia (SASA). Certainly, international theories of cooperation among the nations which are operating in their classical realist paradigm with its shades in the neo-realism or the structural realism in collaboration with game theory. Prisoners’ dilemma (PD) is also a relevant concept applicable in this case. Robert Keohane said that there is cooperation among the actors “when actors adjust their behaviour to the actual or anticipated preferences of others, through a process of policy coordination.”[9] Helen Milner in his Review Article said “states also pursue relative gains, always seeking to compare their absolute gains with those of other states.”[10]

Classical realism is well-suited in case of American relations with different states located in South Asia and Pakistan is one of such examples. Hans J. Morgenthau said that political realism refused to identify the moral aspirations of a particular nation with the moral laws that govern the universe.[11]Whether still it is true that the US President or policy-makers can change the Afghanistan and South Asian region according to their desires when their policies had already not produced the required results since the year 2000 after the incident of 9/11 as maintained by the theorists of New-realism or Structural Realism propounded by the Kenth Neal Waltz.[12] Thus, the Game Theory as well as Prisoner’s Dilemma have become cardinal factors in US-SASA particularly in a changed geopolitical scenario after the launch of CPEC being the part One Road, One Belt project of China. Thus, in the South Asia (SA), the Pakistan as a key player for elimination of terrorism from the region is being ignored, frustrated and again disenchanted from US relationship whereas giving India more importance will not be workable in Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia as the role of India is being reduced day by day. Even it is necessary for India to improve relations with Pakistan to get a comfortable trade access in Afghanistan and the Central Asia when the Central Asian States and Russia are also looking to Pakistan as the CPEC is going to become a trade route of future boosting international trade through Gwadar, an all-weather warm waters deep-sea port. Now there be no such warmth in the relations between the Russia and India when China and Russia are exploring ways and means for more cooperation and their role in international or regional politics. In realist terms Russia may grab the opportunity to settle its score with USA for its defeat and humiliation in Afghanistan because now the USA is at the same position as the Russia (then USSR) was in 1979 and thereafter till the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. Therefore, Trump’s SASA is not going to resolve problems of US in Afghanistan but may prove fatal while disturbing balance of power between Pakistan and India and provoking protests from the people of Pakistan and resentment of Pakistan’s Parliament and establishment.

In both the Classical Realism and Neo-realism, the reassertion by Russia in geopolitical realities in Central Asia and Afghanistan cannot be ruled out when the US is making efforts for stabilizing in Afghanistan with its hegemonic role to counter-balance the US influence in the South Asian Region.[13]

Donald Trump : A problem-solver or Problem-maker

President Trump in his Remarks[14] said:

“No one denies that we have inherited a challenging and troubling situation in Afghanistan and South Asia, but we do not have the luxury of going back in time and making different or better decisions.  When I became President, I was given a bad and very complex hand, but I fully knew what I was getting into:  big and intricate problems.  But, one way or another, these problems will be solved — I’m a problem solver — and, in the end, we will win.”.

However, the methodologies advance in his Remarks are not realistic and easily feasible as the failure of the successive US administrations i.e. Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, are before the President Trump which were extremely aggressive but the problem of terrorism and instable government in Afghanistan is still there. The main reason for failure of US policies and particularly Obama’s Pivot to Asia was due to their lack of ownership by the people of Afghanistan as the social, cultural and political content was not reasonably promoted and mere reliance on use of military might had proved counter-productive in the circumstances. In the prevailing circumstances it is practically impossible to execute any US policy or strategy in Afghanistan without active cooperation of Pakistan merely be threats or coercive measures as the ground realities in South Asian Region has been changed after China’s active involvement in Pakistan through different economic and defence-related projects. CPEC is more beneficial to China, Russia and other Central Asian Republics (CAR) including Afghanistan and this aspect has been ignored by the US policy-makers. Pakistan-China relations are having more depth realized by the people and leaders of both states[15] whereas Pakistan-US relations always remained in realistic-need-based model and disenchanted. US policy-makers always failed to understand the diametrically opposite nature of Pakistan and India treatment although both of them are neighbourly countries. There was always discriminatory treatment by US administration with Pakistan at the cost of India which was never acceptable to Pakistan as Pakistan’s interests were always opposite to India in the regional perspective. Pakistan always felt disgraced and used for US purposes and thereafter discarded. At the same time US perception remained based on resentment and distrust. It was US perception based on its national power that Pakistan and every state of the world should act in their line of action whereas Pakistan always followed its own national interests whenever there was conflict between Pakistan and US interests. In this way, Pakistan is the only country in the world which was worst slapped by US sanctions as and when liked by US administration irrespective of past role or relationship with Pakistan.[16]

Here in the case of Pakistan, the Donald Trump’s SASA will prove not only counter-productive but worst for all times in Pakistan-US relations history but also for future. Trump’s policy-makers miserably failed to understand implications of SASA keeping in view about 21 million Muslim population located in an important geostrategic region which is the confluence of West, South and Central Asia and this geographically edge cannot be taken away by anyone in any way. Unnecessary US pressure will lead policy control out of hands of political leadership due to popular reactions from fundamental Muslim population to military leadership which will purely make policies from defence and strategic context instead of political soft corner of political leadership always tilting towards western countries due to their personal reasons and stakes with such countries. A progressive and liberal Pakistan is only in US interests which is only possible if there is no unilateral power and policy onslaught against Pakistan. US policy-makers are absolutely failed to realize that CPEC is going to unite China and Russian interests in Pakistan. It is expected that Russia will not lose a great opportunity knocking at its door to trade through Pakistan through all weather warm waters of the Indian ocean for which USSR had not only disintegrated but paid a heavy economic cost by invading Afghanistan. There is no doubt grabbing of opportunities is the realist and successful paradigm in international relations. Taking nuclear Pakistan as granted is the worst policy blunder of US policy-makers under the leadership of the President Donald Trump.

Therefore, assertion by Donald Trump that “I’m a problem solver — and, in the end, we will win.” will not serve the purpose.

Another strategic blunder in SASA is promoting India at the cost of Pakistan will force new strategic alignment in South Asian Region bringing China and Pakistan more closer and at the same time it will also become a harbinger for Russia to review its relations with India as two opposite poles cannot meet at any cost. US policy-makers and Trump himself particularly failed to perceive convergence of strategic interests of Pakistan-China-Russia in the coming days. Hence, time will tell whether Donald Trump will be problem-solver or problem-maker for US interests in the South Asian Region. Strategic convergence of interests of Pakistan-China-Russia may give birth to a novel strategic alliance in the history of world history changing to course of political geography of Asia and the world and redefining roles of different world powers in future.

Pakistan’s Reaction on Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia

There is no doubt that Pakistan is a declared nuclear power and maintaining a balance of power with India being its arch rival in the region and having strategic policy only focusing to its western borders neighbouring India. Pakistan’s national security policy is regional in nature and country specific as there a history of about seven decades of hostility and acrimonies between India and Pakistan. Trump’s assertion that “Another critical part of the South Asia strategy for America is to further develop its strategic partnership with India – the world’s largest democracy and a key security and economic partner of the United States. We appreciate India’s important contribution to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with United States, and we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development. We are committed to pursuing our shared objectives for peace and security in South Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.”[17] is not taken with comfort by the people of Pakistan, Government of Pakistan, political, strategic and defence analysts. In this Trump’s SASA left no room for Pakistan when clearly warned Pakistan to change its policy regarding safe havens of terrorist organizations and Taliban with full force “that will have to change, and that will change immediately. No partnership can survive a country’s harbouring of militants and terrorists who target U.S. servicemembers and officials. It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilization, order and to peace.”[18] US policy-makers had not suitably advised the President Donald Trump to deal with a nuclear state which remained US’s non-NATO ally and partner in War on Terrorism which is still continuing.

US policy-makers failed to notice ground realities in Afghanistan which was left by US to bear the cost of destruction by USSR and America during the Soviet invasion and after withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan. People of Afghanistan have no love affair with America and American people except a group of political beneficiaries installed as rulers in Afghanistan by USA and its allies. Similar are the sentiments for India as the India will not be able to change religious perspective of Afghan Muslims which are having more fundamental and militant nature and fully aware about role of India in the past. India has nothing to do with Afghanistan and with Afghan people except secure a space to interfere in anti-national activities in Balochistan without realizing its cost if the Pakistan might have to respond in the same way in different parts of India as there are many trouble spots including separatist movements.

There are stern reactions from people of Pakistan who are protesting against Trump’s SASA. The Senate and National Assembly of Pakistan passed unanimous Resolutions on hostile and threatening statements by Trump and General Nicholson. Both the houses of the Parliament recommended for constructive diplomatic engagement with US administration for better bilateral relations based on the principle of reciprocity and mutual respect in addition to a hope for a lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan.[19]Similarly, Foreign Minister of Pakistan said country’s interests would take precedence over other considerations in all external dealings and no one would allowed to scapegoat Pakistan in future.[20]

National Security Implications for Pakistan of Trump’s SASA

Immediately after announcement of Trump’s SASA, the State Department withheld US$225 million escrow account previously promised military aid by attaching new conditions with further review all such commitments in the light of SASA.[21] There are also discussions and seminars to assess the implications of Trump’s SASA and in one of such seminars it was asserted to understand US ties with India and Afghanistan.[22] Although at the same time US beginning reinterpretation of SASA keeping in view resentment by the People. US Ambassador David Hale during a meeting with National Security Adviser (NSA) stated that US policy is misinterpreted and “stressed the need for working together to stabilize Afghanistan”[23] but at the same time Pakistan cancelled proposed visit of US Acting Assistant Secretary which will be after review of Pakistan’s foreign policy towards US and the former US Special Envoy to Afghanistan Laurel Miller warned US administration that the US decision to give a greater role to India in Afghanistan would “significantly antagonise the Pakistanis” most sensitive buttons.[24] At the same time General Nicholson alleged that Afghan Taliban leadership is hiding in Quetta and Peshawar and the Foreign Minister of Pakistan swiftly replied on such allegations that US is blaming Pakistan for its failure in Afghanistan.[25] It was not the end as the Prime Minister of Pakistan also said that Trump’s Afghan strategy will not work in the circumstances.[26]

Parliament of Pakistan while retracting from past, taken a clear stance and suggested to the Government to muster support of regional stakeholders against US-SASA as the strategy is not acceptable to Pakistan at any cost.[27]

US administration has also started pressurising its other partners for their cooperation with Pakistan as happened in the case of Turkey which was stopped to allow Pakistani pilots to train their pilots to use F-16 aircraft.[28]

China is also taking seriously Trump’s SASA and came forward to support and defend Pakistan’s interests and national security as the China reiterated its support to Pakistan for its sacrifices and forefront fighting against terrorism.[29]

Afghanistan turning Vietnam for US

President Trump’s tirade on the 21^st August, 2017, stating that nearly 16 years after September 11^th attacks, after the extraordinary sacrifice of blood and treasure, the American people are weary of war without victory. Nowhere is this more evident than with the war in Afghanistan, the longest war in American history spanning over 17 years which brought only frustration to US people. It was also frustration over a foreign policy that has spent much time, energy, money and most importantly lives, trying to rebuild countries in our own image instead of pursuing our security interests above all other considerations.[30] However, by such a clear and realistic analysis, President Trump came with a defective strategy which will not end the troubles of US administration but for further expense and loss of life and ultimately humiliation like Vietnam. A more practical and qualitative opinion has been expressed by Stavridis, a retired four-star US Navy Admiral and NATO Supreme Commander who is now serving as the Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University who said that the options are bad in Afghanistan as we could cut our losses from 2400 Americans dead, US$1 trillion spent and eventually leading to another Vietnam moment.[31] Therefore, there is no cavil that the US policy-makers should realize in realistic terms and come forward with a practical approach which has already been recognized in the SASA by emphasising political role of Afghan people and government[32] which will only be possible in the form of a true representative government instead of installing worthless warlords or political stooges dancing on US music and tunes only for their survival and economic interests. Only a genuine participation of people of Afghanistan in political process will bring peace and stability which will be beneficial for all stakeholders within and outside Afghanistan.

Trump’s advisers and policy-makers has also miserably failed to realize diametrically opposite interests of US and India vis-a-vis Pakistan as it is in the Indian interest to stay and control policy-making process in Afghanistan at the cost of US loss of lives and spending to safeguard Indian hegemonic interests and designs to ensure its presence in vicinity of Balochistan to support and help so-called Baloch nationalists as well as to forestall such efforts which will ultimately coincide on failure of CPEC and continued unrest and disturbance in Balochistan to engage the Pakistan armed forces and government in Balochistan to avert their attentions from core problems within internal affairs of India and from different separatist movements in Indian Union including the freedom movement in Indian Occupied Kashmir and water dispute with Pakistan. Thus, further bolstering the role of India in Afghanistan affairs will not serve any positive purpose in the strategy instead to ensure further disgrace and humiliation for American nation at the cost of Indian strategic interest in South Asian Region.

Bolstering the Role of India in the South Asian Region as US Proxy

Assigning an important role to India at US cost and expense as well as ignoring the sacrifices of Pakistan in US War on Terrorism and extremists will not serve the purposes of the Trump’s Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia. It is also noteworthy there will be no role for India in the South Asian Region as it is being cornered unless a trade route and access is provided by Pakistan through a land route to Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics as well as Russia. Probably, the policy-maker in Pakistan will not allow India to benefit from Pakistan as well as from US to risk national security of Pakistan providing economic and defence gains to India. Therefore, India cannot serve any purpose in Afghanistan as there is no religious and cultural harmony among the people of Afghanistan and India and Indian presence in Afghanistan is linked and dependent on US presence in Afghanistan. Hence, it is a strategic fault on the part of US policy-makers to ignore the role of Pakistan for elimination of terrorism and extremism. In the case of presence strategy there will be no peace and stability in Afghanistan until a single religious Afghan is alive in Afghanistan because religious sentiments are deep-rooted in their blood as compared to US economic assistance which they believe is not a blessing or bounty but due to their role for destroying US arch rival USSR from global political scenario of the world.

Hidden agenda to contain China and Pakistan

Trump’s SASA is not a simple document as it appears but it is also having its hidden aspects. US administration has planned to promote India as a US proxy in South Asian Region to contain China by boosting India economically and strategically. China is immediately able to realize such US and Indian moves. China appreciated Pakistan’s role in its anti-terror efforts openly. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson during a press briefing appreciated the great sacrifices of Pakistan in its efforts for fighting against terrorism.[33] In this way, there are serious repercussions of SASA on the national security of Pakistan and China which are now having converging economic interests after the threatening overtures of US forces in Chinese ocean. China and Pakistan are sharing a common geography and mutual respect embedded in perception of a genuine all-weather friendship as compared to US role which was always opportunist and in realist paradigm. Similarly, India cannot afford any adventure either against China or Pakistan while both are having shared thinking and mutual economic interests. The completion of CPEC projects will create further depth in relations between Pakistan and China as after huge investments in different sectors of Pakistan it will be difficult for China to act upon dictation of US administration or to appease India extraordinarily at the cost of such economic, strategic and political interest linked with Pakistan.

Conclusions

Pakistan-United States have a historical perspective in their bilateral relationship which is also time-tested on the basis of mutual cooperation, trust and reliance. There is also no doubt that Pakistan has no strategic interests like USA in the world politics. Hence, the USA is always in need of trusted partners. Pakistan always proved and remained a trusted partner and ally of the USA since CENTO and SEATO whereas then India was perusing a policy of non-alignment and enjoying bilateral relations with USSR as well as USA i.e. running with the hare and hunting with the hounds, the USSR and the USA were rival super powers at that time.

Pakistan had not only played its role in USA’s policy of containment but thereafter becoming a non-NATO ally of the USAand front-runner in USA’s War on Terrorism and extremism in Afghanistan and against outfits of terrorist and militants in Pakistan and suffered huge loss of life and in economic terms in billions of dollars although the USA frustrated Pakistan during the 1965 and 1971 wars with a setback of its dismemberment by India.

Still Pakistan and the USA can play a more better role in South Asian Region as well as for a long term peace and stability in Afghanistan and no efforts of the USA will ever be successful in Afghanistan without active role and participation of Pakistan as all routes to peace and stability in Afghanistan go through Pakistan due to its historical, social, cultural, religious, political and economic relations with Afghanistan. Even it may easily be said that in-fighting and instability in Afghanistan is only due to Indian presence as diametrically and adversely opposite interests cannot even in the realist terms can survive together.

Therefore, any of the USA’s policy or strategy which will be at the cost of Pakistan’s national security in the South Asian Region will never be successful. For success in Afghanistan it is necessary for the USA to review its Strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia and to recognize the role of Pakistan as happened in the past.

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Author

Dr. G. Chaudhry, Policy, Governance and National Security Analyst, Parliamentary Council and Legislative Draftsman. He is based in Islamabad and heading a Research and Consultancy Firm namely Chaudhry and Chaudhry Associates, Islamabad.He is the author of more than two dozen Books in the field of Law, Legislative Drafting and Process in Pakistan, Intellectual Property Rights, Military Laws and the Constitution of Pakistan in addition to a collection of Essays on Law, Justice, Human Rights and Legal System. He also worked as Legislative Adviser/Draftsman in the Ministry of Law, Justice and Human Rights and participated in drafting of hundreds of laws.  His books titled “Practical Approach to Legislative Drafting” and “Legislative Process in Pakistan” are like text-books in the field of legislative drafting and law-making process and working of Parliament in Pakistan. “Essays on Law, Justice, Human Rights and Legal System” is a collection of essays on different topics as apparent from the title. Presently, he is heading a firm which is providing consultancy services and dealing with matters relating to Law, Governance, Management, Legislative and Parliamentary Drafting and Counselship in addition to delivering lectures as a Visiting Faculty Member in different Colleges and Universities.

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Bibliography

Qureshi, Ishtiaq Husain. The Struggle for Pakistan (Karachi: University of Karachi, 1982), 218-223. Sir Tej Bahadur Sapru’s Conciliation Committee’s Proposals i.e. Sapru Proposals.

Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre. Freedom at Midnight (London:HarperCollinsPublishers, 1997).

Tahir-Kheli, Shirin. The United States and Pakistan – The Evolution of an Influence Relationship (New York: Praeger Publishers, 1982).

Barry Buzan and Gowher Rizvi. South Asian Insecurity and the Great Powers (Hong Kong: The Macmillan Press Ltd., 1986).

Saeed Shafqat and Raheem ul Haque. Pakistan, Afghanistan & US Relations : Implications and Future Directions – White Paper of the Interagency Policy Group’s Report on U.S. Policy Towards Afghanistan and Pakistan (Lahore: Centre for Public Policy and Governance, 2011).

Owen Bennett Jones. Pakistan – Eye of the Storm (New Delhi: Penguin Books, 2005).

Press Release of the White House by the Office of the Press Secretary, dated 21-08-2017 accessible at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/21/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-and-south-asia

Keohane; Kennth A. Oye, ed. Cooperation under Anarchy (Princeton : Princeton University Press, 1986).

Helen Milner, International Theories of Cooperation Among Nations – Strengths and Weaknesses, in World Politics 44 (April 1992).

Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations, 4^th edition, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1967).

Waltz, Keenth Neal. Theory of International Politics, (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979).

Malik, Hafeez. US Relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan : The Imperial Dimension (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2008).

White House Press Release, 21-08-2017.

Pakistan-China Institute. Handbook of Pakistan-China Relations, Article by Zhou Gang titled “All-Weather Friendship and All-Dimensional Cooperation” (Islamabad: Dost Publications, 2015).

Dennis Kux. The United States and Pakistan, 1947-2000 : Disenchanted Allies (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Centre Press, 2001).

Resolution passed by the National Assembly of Pakistan on the 30^th August, 2017. “Parliament rejects Trump’s tirade against Pakistan”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 31, 2017.

Khawaja Asif, “New Paradigm to emerge after foreign policy reset”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 8, 2017.

US State Department’s statement, “US attaches new conditions to pledged military aid”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.

Correspondent Report, “Need to understand US ties with India and Afghanistan stressed”, Islamabad: The News, September 1, 2017. Seminar on “Emerging Scenarios in India-US Strategic Ties : Implications for Kashmir”, Riphah Institute of Public Policy, held on August 31, 2017.

Baqir Sajjad Syed, Reporter, “Pakistan ready to engage with US for Afghan Peace”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.

Anwar Iqbal, Reporter, “Rescheduling of talks creates uncertainty about ties with US”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 28, 2017.

Syed Irfan Raza, Reporter, “Pakistan indignant over US general’s allegations”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 28, 2017.

APP, “Trump’s Afghan strategy will not work”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 28, 2017.

Iftikhar A. Khan, Reporter, “Call to muster regional support against US policy”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 30, 2017.

Monitoring Report, Ankara, “US bars Turkey from using Pakistani pilots for F-16s training”, Islamabad: The News, August 30, 2017.

Statement of Chinese Spokesperson, “China hails Pakistan’s anti-terror efforts”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.

James Stavridis, “Back to the future in Afghanistan”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 24, 2017.

Statement of Chinese Spokesperson, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.

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[1]Qureshi, Ishtiaq Husain. The Struggle for Pakistan (Karachi: University of Karachi, 1982), 218-223. Sir Tej Bahadur Sapru’s Conciliation Committee’s Proposals i.e. Sapru Proposals.

[2]Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre. Freedom at Midnight (London:HarperCollinsPublishers, 1997), 150.

[3]Tahir-Kheli, Shirin. The United States and Pakistan – The Evolution of an Influence Relationship (New York: Praeger Publishers, 1982), 4-5.

[4]Barry Buzan and Gowher Rizvi. South Asian Insecurity and the Great Powers (Hong Kong: The Macmillan Press Ltd., 1986), 251.

[5]Saeed Shafqat and Raheem ul Haque. Pakistan, Afghanistan & US Relations : Implications and Future Directions – White Paper of the Interagency Policy Group’s Report on U.S. Policy Towards Afghanistan and Pakistan (Lahore: Centre for Public Policy and Governance, 2011), 75.

[6]Owen Bennett Jones. Pakistan – Eye of the Storm (New Delhi: Penguin Books, 2005), 2.

[7] White House Press Release, 21-08-2017.

[8] Press Release of the White House by the Office of the Press Secretary, dated 21-08-2017 accessible at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/21/remarks-president-trump-strategy-afghanistan-and-south-asia

[9]Keohane; Kennth A. Oye, ed. Cooperation under Anarchy (Princeton : Princeton University Press, 1986).

[10]Helen Milner, International Theories of Cooperation Among Nations – Strengths and Weaknesses, in World Politics 44 (April 1992), 471.

[11]Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations, 4^th edition, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1967), 10.

[12]Waltz, Keenth Neal. Theory of International Politics, (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979), 51-60.

[13]Malik, Hafeez. US Relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan : The Imperial Dimension (Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2008), 91.

[14] White House Press Release, 21-08-2017.

[15]Pakistan-China Institute. Handbook of Pakistan-China Relations, Article by Zhou Gang titled “All-Weather Friendship and All-Dimensional Cooperation” (Islamabad: Dost Publications, 2015), 17-27.

[16]Dennis Kux. The United States and Pakistan, 1947-2000 : Disenchanted Allies (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Centre Press, 2001), 359-368.

[17] White House Press Release, 21-08-2017.

[18] White House Press Release, 21-08-2017, paragraph 36.

[19]Resolution passed by the National Assembly of Pakistan on the 30^th August, 2017. “Parliament rejects Trump’s tirade against Pakistan”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 31, 2017.

[20]Khawaja Asif, “New Paradigm to emerge after foreign policy reset”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 8, 2017.

[21] US State Department’s statement, “US attaches new conditions to pledged military aid”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.

[22] Correspondent Report, “Need to understand US ties with India and Afghanistan stressed”, Islamabad: The News, September 1, 2017. Seminar on “Emerging Scenarios in India-US Strategic Ties : Implications for Kashmir”, Riphah Institute of Public Policy, held on August 31, 2017.

[23]Baqir Sajjad Syed, Reporter, “Pakistan ready to engage with US for Afghan Peace”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.

[24]Anwar Iqbal, Reporter, “Rescheduling of talks creates uncertainty about ties with US”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 28, 2017.

[25]Syed Irfan Raza, Reporter, “Pakistan indignant over US general’s allegations”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 28, 2017.

[26]APP, “Trump’s Afghan strategy will not work”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 28, 2017.

[27] Iftikhar A. Khan, Reporter, “Call to muster regional support against US policy”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 30, 2017.

[28] Monitoring Report, Ankara, “US bars Turkey from using Pakistani pilots for F-16s training”, Islamabad: The News, August 30, 2017.

[29] Statement of Chinese Spokesperson, “China hails Pakistan’s anti-terror efforts”, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.

[30] White House Press Release, 21-08-2017, paragraphs 13 and 14.

[31] James Stavridis, “Back to the future in Afghanistan”, Islamabad: Dawn, August 24, 2017.

[32] White House Press Release, 21-08-2017, paragraphs 32, 33 and 48.

[33] Statement of Chinese Spokesperson, Islamabad: Dawn, September 1, 2017.